Peterson et al. 2003. Uncertainty and the Management of Multistate Ecosystems: an apparently rationale route to collapse. Ecology 84: 1406-1411

An example of an emergent behavior of a coupled socio-ecological system. The authors model the management of a lake subject to regime shifts between oligotrophic and eutrophic states, with managers assessing alternative models of the lake under the direction to maximize present value. Regardless of environmental variability and precision of observations, management for maximal value fails to stabilize lake condition and creates cycles of transitions between the states.

Peterson et al 2003 Rationale Route to Collapse.pdf — PDF document, 383Kb